Basketball Parlay

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CBSSports.com's NBA expert picks provides daily picks against the spread and over/under for each game during the season from our resident picks guru. $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game) $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game) Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit.

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A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.

To give an example, say you’re interested this week in betting Jets -4, Patriots +3, Dolphins +2.5 and Colts -7. If your bankroll is limited to just $100, using straight wagers you’d make four separate bets of $25 to win $22.73. If you we’re feeling both lucky and in the mood to gamble, you might instead bet them all together as a four team parlay. Under the parlay option, the stakes would be $100 to win at least $1,000. To win, you’ll need to go 4-0; if one or more games push while all others win, the payout is reduced, and with any other outcome, the bet is a loss.

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What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay.

Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on!

CBSSports.com's NBA expert picks provides daily picks against the spread and over/under for each game during the season from our resident picks guru. Free College Basketball Picks, Expert Predictions & Parlays Against the Spread. The best free college basketball picks as well as parlays for all of today's games.

Are Parlays Sucker Bets?

There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.

The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:

2 teams 2.6 to 1
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 20-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 80-1
8 teams 150-1

Online the odds are similar, though some sites such as BetNow and MyBookie offer better odds starting with three teams and up. What’s important to note is that these are fixed odds based on a 50/50 wagering proposition. If a spread is listed at Home Team -7 / Road Team +7 this is 50/50 proposition. If, instead, the spread was Home Team -7 -105 / Road Team +7 -115, this is no longer a 50/50 proposition, and the payout will be calculated using a method bookmakers refer to as “true odds”. I’ll cover that later in this article, but first let’s take a moment to understand where fixed parlay odds are derived from.

Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:

Basketball Parlay

Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91)
Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65)
Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97)
Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31)
Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41)
Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51)
Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70)
Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)

The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.

What Does a Parlay Pay?

As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds: Games you can play for free and win real money.

In general two team parlays pay +260, or $260 for every $100 bet. BetNow offers +264.5, and 5Dimes.eu offers +264, which is better than the +260 most betting sites offer.

3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts.

This is the area where betting sites generally hurt the sports bettor, paying only 10 to 1, which gives them a 31.25% advantage. This can be avoided when betting at BetNow where the payout is +1228.3, or at 5Dimes where it is +1228.

Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these.

How much does a 15 team parlay pay? A 15 team parlay will pay out over +16,000. I just tested this out and a $1 15 team NFL parlay at -110 odds will payout $16,306. Good luck hitting on that!

True Odds Parlays

1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.

To calculate true odd parlays, each bet first needs to be converted into a multiplier. To do this, take what a winning ticket would return and divide it by the amount risked. For example, at -110 a $110 stake returns $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). Calculating the multiplier as return/risk here, we plug in 210/110, which means the multiplier is 1.91. If we did the same on -115, the multiplier is 215/115=1.87.

Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.

As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.

Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays

Basketball Parlay Calculator

1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.

2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.

3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.

Parlays That Make the Most Sense:

Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline.

Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race.

Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses.

Circumventing Betting Limits – I’ll warn you upfront that betting sites do not take kindly to this, and it might get you banned. The basic idea here is, say you find a parlay with monster value in a small market with low betting limits. Let’s say a woman’s field hockey line opens at +150 when it should be +100. Here making ten unique two-team parlays, using the +150 bet with a random -110 each time might be advantageous, as on average you’ll get down 5 times the max bet. At -110 juice the expected ROI is less, but to get the maximum amount down on line of significant value, it might make sense. While personally I rarely use this strategy online, I do attempt to get away with it in Las Vegas from time to time. This takes a little bit of acting, such as starting to walk away from the cage and then saying wait, also give me… Know this: It is a trick of the trade advantage players use that is not for novice bettors.

This concludes our article on parlay betting. As a final tip: if you enjoy using parlays as a lottery ticket, www.Bovada.lv runs a $10,000 weekly parlay jackpot during football season, which is an added bonus on top of what a $5 stake pays on a 10 team parlay win. To learn more, see the promo section at www.Bovada.lv. If nothing else, this article gives you some great conversation material next time someone in the sports bar says, parlays are for suckers. Hopefully, it ends up being much more than that, adding extra winnings to your bankroll. Either way, we wish you the best of luck.

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How To Get Max Value When Betting

It’s Thursday night and you’re feeling a little lucky. I’ve put together a three-team college basketball parlay that will have you crossing your fingers for at least five hours between two Big Ten games and a West Coast Conference game. A $25 wager could return $170!

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Parlay

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 07:00 PM EST – ESPN2

Opening Line: Michigan -6.5 (-110) at Bovada

Why Michigan is the Play

Michigan (18-9) are on a five game winning streak after winning back-to-back road games against Rutgers and Purdue. Neither place is easy to play at but Michigan got it done. This whole winning streak began with a win over Michigan State at home too. Michigan has erupted offensively averaging 75.2 points per game in their wins.

Michigan’s average for the season is sitting around 75.4 points per game. They’re playing to their average nicely. The Wolverines are allowing just over 60 points per game in their last five. That’s a 15-point difference in their last five games.

Typically, in the Big Ten, it’s extremely hard to win on the road. Wisconsin is 13-1 at home but 4-6 on the road this season straight up. Historically, Michigan has dominated at home, against the spread, going 21-9-1 in their last 31 home games.

If you take away the road win over Nebraska, Wisconsin lost to Minnesota on the road by 18, lost to Iowa on the road by six, lost to Purdue on the road by 19, and lost to Michigan State on the road by 12. Wisconsin’s last road win came against Penn State on January 11 (if you eliminate Nebraska). How is Wisconsin going to come in and beat a Michigan team that looks like a top-10 team currently?

Michigan’s defense has been terrific as of late and the Wolverines have their leading scorer in Isaiah Livers back on the court. Livers dropped 19 points in their win at Purdue on Saturday.

Not only has Michigan won their last five games but they’ve covered their last five games against the spread. Michigan has their swagger back. I’ll add Michigan -6.5 in my three-team parlay for Thursday, February 27.

Key Stat

  • Wolverines are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Free NCAAB Pick: Michigan -6.5 (-108) with 5Dimes

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 09:00 PM EST – ESPN2

Opening Line: Ohio State -9.5 (-108) at Betonline

Why Ohio State Is The Play

I already ripped Nebraska when talking about Wisconsin. You know my feelings on Nebraska by now. Ohio State (18-9) has won three of their last four games with the lone loss coming against Iowa on the road. Yes, Ohio State is on the road. Yes, they’re playing Nebraska. This is the same Ohio State team that defeated Michigan on the road early this month.

Ohio State has won six of their last eight games against the spread and have held opponents to 66.4 points per game in their last five games. Ohio State had to go up against Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin during this stretch. Those teams are near the top in all offensive categories in the Big Ten. Still, Ohio State found ways to get stops down the stretch.

Nebraska has lost 12 straight games and are sitting in the bottom of the Big Ten currently. The Cornhuskers almost found a way to beat Maryland on the road but couldn’t finish the job. This Ohio State team has some real momentum right now while Nebraska is 0-5 at home against the spread.

Ohio State has been very good down the stretch in Big Ten play and now sit at an 8-8 record. They’re projected to be a 6 seed and anywhere close to a loss to Nebraska wouldn’t help their situation. Ohio State isn’t a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, although, currently, it seems likely. Ohio State beat Maryland as a 2.5 point favorite and got the job done. There was way more pressure in that game than this one.

Ohio State is led by Kaleb Wesson who scored 15 points in the game against Maryland. He averages close to a double-double with 14 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season. Players around him have been inconsistent but it’s easy to come out of a funk against a Nebraska team that’s allowing 76.5 points per game on defense this season. I like my chances with Ohio State as the second team in my three-team parlay.

Basketball Parlay Cards

Key Stat

  • Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Basketball Parlay Calculator

Free NCAAB Pick: Ohio State -9.5 (-108) with 5Dimes

Pacific Tigers vs. Loyola Marymount Lions

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 10:00 PM EST

Opening Line: Pacific -1.5 (-108) at 5Dimes

Why Pacific Is The Play

Pacific will look for their 22nd victory of the season and are just 1.5 point favorites against Loyola Marymount who have 10 wins all season. Something’s not right. The Tigers have put together their best season in the West Coast Conference under former NBA point guard, Damon Stoudamire. Pacific have won five of their last six games and they’re still getting no respect.

Have no doubt about it, Pacific has been streaky this season. But right now, they’re hot. It’s the perfect time to take the Tigers. The Tigers are scoring 70.5 points per game and are apparently a very slow-tempo team according to KenPom. They’re 322nd in pace of play this season yet Pacific is still scoring near the 70’s range on a daily basis.

The Tigers are coming off a home win over Santa Clara after they won the game, 87-74 behind Jahlil Tripp’s 29 points on 10 of 16 from the field.

Basketball Parlay Calculator

Loyola Marymount is currently 3-7 in their last ten games at home this season and while both teams are 4-1 in their last five, Loyola Marymount is 2-3 in their last five at home.

The Lions rebound 30.1 times per game while Pacific hauls in 36.4 rebounds per game. Pacific’s defense has been much better as of late too. In their last four wins, Pacific has allowed 63.8 points per game. The Lions are averaging 59 points in their last four games offensively. Loyola Marymount doesn’t have much size or length either. I like Pacific as my final team in the three-team parlay.

Basketball Parlay Cards

Key Stat

Basketball Parlay Cards

  • Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.

Ncaa Basketball Parlay Picks

Free NCAAB Pick: Pacific -1.5 (-108) with 5Dimes

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